门外海涛奔铁骑，槛前山背拥金鳌

2007/12/30 - By 数位之墙 - 关键字／标签：社区 门户网站 交友 Google Web 2.0

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◎社会阶层决定网站用户数

 

Web 2.0 发展至今吸引了大批创业者加入，然而时局已经不再大好， 很多网站走入关门边缘，在求发展与求获利中挣扎。想要再融资是不 太可能，因为亚洲地区的创投界已经不像以前这么看好这个领域。

 

市场局面大势底定。在中国大陆，用户达到数千万级别的，可期望藉 第三轮融资发展，但面对大型 1.0网站也进入市场的挑战；用户数仅 数百万级别的，用户数也不会再快速增加，必须自己想办法营利。

 

在台湾，由于有雅虎台湾这个市场独大的门户网站，再加上原本就狭 小的市场，小型Web 2.0 网站积弱不振，距离营利之路很远。但与此 同时却有一些老牌社区网站存活很好，获利颇佳。

 

为什么会造成这种市场局面？笔者以前说过，Web 2.0 的发展基础是 社会学，因此一个Web 2.0 网站的用户数多寡，完全看它占领了那个 社会阶层（或者文化阶层）而定，那个阶层直接决定了用户数的上限。

 

因为Web 2.0 网站几乎是靠著人拉人发展起来。每个用户会拉动的人 都是他生活上熟悉的圈子，不管陌生人或熟人。当同一种阶层的人在 这个网站越积越多的时候，其他阶层的人也越难以加入到这里。

 

等到网站有第一批用户，为了牢牢抓住他们，及利用他们带更多用户 进来，必须更加揣摩他们的心思甚或社交习惯。结果更深化了这样的 发展，更加走向某一种文化氛围或者社会阶层，再也无法回头。

 

◎经营团队本身的社会阶层决定用户多寡

 

要观察一个Web 2.0 网站发展，看它第一批用户是甚么人就知道了。 Google的 SNS网站Orkut 一开始无心插柳在巴西大受欢迎，其他国家 用户从此很难加入。我们身旁几乎没人用Orkut ，尽管我们用Google。

 

韩国最大社区网站Cyworld 先前进军美国，当然想吸引欧系美国人来 用，没想到却吸引到一堆亚裔小男生小女生。为什么？因为网站功能 设计甚至文化氛围始终比较接近亚洲人户习惯。

 

而交友网站Friendster自从积累大量菲律宾用户后，其他国家的人也 很难融入那个圈子。这就是文化界线。纵然跨国Web 2.0 网站能吸引 到全世界用户，仔细观察这些人，会发现都是性质靠近的一群。

 

反观国内，51.com的用户一开始从二线城市网吧发展起来，现在很难 拓展用户群到一线城市的白领。反之其它Web 2.0 网站也打不进二 线城市市场。文化的氛围以及实体世界的社会阶层，就是这么影响著。

 

占有「上层社会」（指白领）的Web 2.0 网站，用户数发展注定受 限。特别在中国大陆，白领是占总人口比例极少的一群，大部分生 活在沿海。以这个群体为目标的Web 2.0 网站用户数很难上到千万。

 

至于台湾的共享书签网站黑米与推推王，使用族群的文化氛围便明显 不同。前者要更加精英一些，后者要更加普罗大众一些。然而两者都 不脱白领的社会阶层，因此不如老牌的草根社区高流量或赚钱。

 

再往前一点看，要观察一个Web 2.0 网站发展，看它的创业团队是属 于甚么样的社会阶层就知道了。因为这群人会把自己的思维放进到社 群的经营上，而这些思维绝对受到这些人本身所处社会阶层的制约。

 

◎有文化的东西做不大

 

有的Web 2.0 网站或者社区网站并不是占领某一种社会阶层，而是占 领某种文化团体或者兴趣团体，例如以动漫为主题，以运动为主题， 以文学为主题，以书评为主题，或者以美食为主题的社区。

 

这些社区一定都受到社会群体的大小制约。例如，喜欢动漫的人在中 国大陆市场有多少？喜欢美食的人在台湾市场有多少？在中国大陆这 样的市场可能让网站经营者足以养活自己，在台湾可能就很艰难。

 

Web 2.0 网站或者社区网站为什么做不大？除了社会阶层的制约外， 也因为「有文化的东西本来就做不大」。只要一个社区网站你能清楚 说出它是属于一种甚么样的文化氛围，他就是做不大的。

 

难道「没文化」就能做大？要弄清楚这里的「没文化」不是指低俗文 化，而是指「讲不出来是什么文化」。只要能讲出这个网站属于哪种 文化，就一定有人讨厌这种文化。无法讨好所有人的结果就是做不大。

 

然而这太强人所难了！社区正因其文化氛围吸引兴趣相投的人靠近并 留下，怎么可能没有文化？然而也正是如此，不喜欢这种氛围的人也 都不来。很多老牌社区网站多少年过去了，也就那个样子没有大发展。

 

令人意外的是，解决之道居然在于Web 1.0 。 （文：数位之墙）

针对本文发表意见

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上一篇：Web 2.0 ，终章（一）本质的问题没解决

■ 历史上的今天

■ 关键的百分之十六（四）网络购物行为与电子商务 - 2001/12/30

■ 宽带，新的网络冲击 - 2000/12/31

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黄绍麟，原名黄彦达，1998年 4月创立数位之墙，以观察科技趋势为终身职。曾任台湾新浪网网站总监，台湾大哥大营销副理，3G威宝电信营销经理。 业馀从事谘询工作，目前担任 上海51.com董事长助理。

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个人．家庭．数字化 - 数位之墙

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Posted by Karen Wickre, Google Blog team

It's that time again, the end of a year - time to tote up Google's blogging activity for the last 365 days. First, a few bits of data about this particular blog:

• Number of posts this year: 300
• New product announcements: 15 (not counting our April 1 release)
• News about upgrades and additions to products: 87
• Announcing products in more languages and countries: 30
• Acquisitions: 12
• Unique visitors: 6,738,830 (for 8,655,830 visits)
• Languages: 511 (preferred language configured on computers)
• Top non-Google referrers: Yahoo, Digg, Slashdot, Fark

Beyond these basics, this year saw many more posts on privacy (9), accessibility (10), and energy and the environment (11). We blogged a good deal about Google's people and culture, our various offices around the world, and the pastimes and passions of Googlers (26, including 2 recipes). We talked about healthcare issues that challenge consumers (5). There were competitions including Google Code Jam and events for developers, educators and others (29). Through YouTube, there has been much political activity (7) in the U.S. as well as in Australia.

The posts that elicited the most reaction in terms of views and linkbacks include:

- the much-discussed "Gphone" news
- our thinking about the upcoming FCC spectrum auction
- what the OpenSocial APIs could mean
- how a black screen might not save energy
- announcing the Knol test project
- building your own Google homepage

Of course, there's more than business to write about. We celebrated National Gorilla Suit Day, deconstructed the Valentine's Day doodle, and then a snake went missing.

As for the Google family of blogs, there's been lots of growth this year: 42 new ones launched, for a total to 83 active company blogs. Increasingly, Googlers want to quickly and regularly convey product news and updates to various constituents, and blogs are a great way to do that. Among the most popular of this newest crop are the Gmail blog (nearly 1.5 million unique visitors), the Orkut blogs (in English - 3.5 million uniques; and Portuguese - 8.8 million), and Google Lat Long, with 824,000 unique visitors, which covers everything geographical. In addition, readers can now turn to new product blogs including those for Google Finance, Google News, and Mobile. Reflecting keen interest in activity outside the U.S., the YouTube blog had the greatest number of comments for its June post about the fact that YouTube is available in 9 more countries, followed by the August post announcing InVideo ads.

On the ads side: there are now 6 more non-English blogs for AdSense publishers (French, Turkish, Japanese, Korean, Italian, Chinese). The AdWords team opened blogs for Brasil and the Netherlands, Japan now has its own Analytics blog, and there are now German and Chinese versions of the popular Webmaster Central. (The most popular ads-related blog is the one for Analytics, with nearly half a million unique visitors, followed by closely Inside AdSense and then Inside AdWords.)

To keep current and share their work, developers got a raft of new blogs, too, including those focused on APIs for YouTube, Checkout, Gears, Mashup, and Gadgets. Needless to say, there are now also blogs for Android and OpenSocial.

Two new country blogs, for the Czech Republic and Australia, went public, to talk about all things Google in their regions. Yet more readers congregated around the new Public Policy and Google.org blogs, as well as one dedicated to online security and malware.

Despite all this activity, and the fact that a growing number of companies also host corporate blogs, the Fortune 500 Business Blogging Wiki (a collaborative project begun by Wired Magazine and SocialText) indicates that even today, just 46 of the Fortune 500 companies (about 9%), have active public blogs produced by company employees that focus on the company and its products. Let's hope in 2008 that number goes up. We think such blogs can serve users, journalists, critics, investors, and fans more effectively and directly than more traditional approaches. Apparently, so do 41,395,926 people around the world - the number of visitors to all of our blogs this year.